Some say we have been visited by aliens, even that they are living among us. Lots of stories have been written with that premise. Let's take a look at the obstacles aliens would have to overcome to get here, why they would bother in the first place, where they might come from, and how they could conceal themselves from us while living among us.
Getting here. For aliens to get here, they would either need to travel in a generation ship or exceed the speed of light. Everything we know about physics tells us that the latter is impossible. A generation ship large enough to last thousands of years would be way ahead of our abilities, but still it would be possible. But why here? The odds of coming here are infinitesimal. It looks like "V" is not too likely.
Why Bother? What do we have that another race would be interested in? Why go to all that trouble for little or no return? Our planet was explored only when there was profit to be had. What about "Pilgrims" in a generation ship running from wars or persecution? Wouldn't they make themselves known and hope to be taken in? It is really far-fetched to think that our resources are so valuable that another race would mount a planet-draining effort to steal our poop.
Where are they from? It seems that this is the only planet in our solar system inhabited by intelligent(?) life, so any aliens would have to be from another star. The nearest stars with planets are many light years away, but even if we concede that Alpha Centaurus has habitable planets, it's over four light-years away and would take many years to get here. Again, why bother?
What do they look like? It would be the height of arrogance to assume that aliens would look anything like us. Any planet they came from would be unlikely in the extreme to be exactly like ours, and even if it were, evolution might take any number of different paths. Aliens probably would not be able to even survive on the Earth.
However, even though we most likely never have and never will be visited by aliens from outer space, we have living next door to us a race which may be smarter than we are - Cetaceans! They, at least, have never destroyed their environment, they don't fight wars, and they are even nice to their neighbors, us.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Thursday, March 24, 2011
The Future(?) of Transportation
Back in the 1950's, several Science Fiction writers "predicted" the future of transportation. Most of the predictions were way off base.
Robert Heinlein wrote a story called "The Roads Must Roll," in which the premise was that the US would be criss-crossed with belts which rolled on track-like devices. There would be a series of belts, each one going a bit faster than its predecessor, so riders could step from one to the next until they were travelling at high speed. At the slow edge, where pedestrians entered the system, they built businesses, such as restaurants, dry-cleaners, shops and theaters. The story centered on the underside of the roads, the machinery and the workers who kept them running. Except for airports, this never happened.
There was another story in the '50's which I have been unable to identify, but it predicted that the need for high-speed transportation would become so great that the Interstate highway system would be roofed over and improved so that the lower speed limit would be 600 miles per hour (lots of new technology in the cars, since 600 was the top speed of jet fighters then) and it took years of study and practice to get your driver's license. The story revolved around a driver trying to get and then keep his license. This obviously never happened - the technology and the reflexes aren't there.
Several writers thought that sub-orbital rocket liners would be here by now. They used them to shuttle characters around the world at high speed, in order to facilitate their action. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't get on one of those for a million dollars!
Then there were mag-lev trains. These are trains which are "levitated" over the rails by magnetic force. This almost eliminated the friction of traveling along and the drag of wheels turning on axles, making the train much more efficient. We have the technology, and mag-lev trains are currently in use in several countries - alas, not the United States.
Finally, there were predictions of personal flying devices. Think of the Jetsons, etc. Strap-on rockets and helicopters, flying cars, hovercraft, inertia-less drive devices and so-on were used in countless stories. Some of them were actually invented and found to be highly impracticable. The jury is out on hover craft and inertia-less drives, although it looks like hovercraft will have limited utility due to the wind - although they are in use over water in several places. Inertia-less drives await the technology.
Can you think of any others?
Robert Heinlein wrote a story called "The Roads Must Roll," in which the premise was that the US would be criss-crossed with belts which rolled on track-like devices. There would be a series of belts, each one going a bit faster than its predecessor, so riders could step from one to the next until they were travelling at high speed. At the slow edge, where pedestrians entered the system, they built businesses, such as restaurants, dry-cleaners, shops and theaters. The story centered on the underside of the roads, the machinery and the workers who kept them running. Except for airports, this never happened.
There was another story in the '50's which I have been unable to identify, but it predicted that the need for high-speed transportation would become so great that the Interstate highway system would be roofed over and improved so that the lower speed limit would be 600 miles per hour (lots of new technology in the cars, since 600 was the top speed of jet fighters then) and it took years of study and practice to get your driver's license. The story revolved around a driver trying to get and then keep his license. This obviously never happened - the technology and the reflexes aren't there.
Several writers thought that sub-orbital rocket liners would be here by now. They used them to shuttle characters around the world at high speed, in order to facilitate their action. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't get on one of those for a million dollars!
Then there were mag-lev trains. These are trains which are "levitated" over the rails by magnetic force. This almost eliminated the friction of traveling along and the drag of wheels turning on axles, making the train much more efficient. We have the technology, and mag-lev trains are currently in use in several countries - alas, not the United States.
Finally, there were predictions of personal flying devices. Think of the Jetsons, etc. Strap-on rockets and helicopters, flying cars, hovercraft, inertia-less drive devices and so-on were used in countless stories. Some of them were actually invented and found to be highly impracticable. The jury is out on hover craft and inertia-less drives, although it looks like hovercraft will have limited utility due to the wind - although they are in use over water in several places. Inertia-less drives await the technology.
Can you think of any others?
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